According to Sea-Intelligence data, there are fewer delays and bottlenecks on the container market and a possible market normalization is predicted by Q1 2023. “Overall, the data clearly shows that the market has now resolved literally half of the congestion problem, when comparing the peak of problems in January to the normal baseline of operations, [...] this also implies that the market could be fully normalized during 2023-Q1,” said Sea-Intelligence.
However, strikes at European ports and an unresolved situation at major U.S. West Coast container ports could exert the opposite influence, pushing back the timeline to market normalization, the analyst cautioned.
According to Sea-Intelligence data, there are fewer delays and bottlenecks on the container market and a possible market normalization is predicted by Q1 2023. “Overall, the data clearly shows that the market has now resolved literally half of the congestion problem, when comparing the peak of problems in January to the normal baseline of operations, [...] this also implies that the market could be fully normalized during 2023-Q1,” said Sea-Intelligence.
However, strikes at European ports and an unresolved situation at major U.S. West Coast container ports could exert the opposite influence, pushing back the timeline to market normalization, the analyst cautioned.
Global schedule reliability recorded the largest month-on-month (M/M) improvement in August of 5.8 percentage points, reaching 46.2%.
The average delay for late vessels improved sharply in August, dropping by -0.57 days M/M to 5.86 days. It marked the first time average delay dropped below the six-day mark since April 2021.
Maersk was the most reliable carrier in August with schedule reliability at 53%, followed by CMA CGM with 46%. Six carriers recorded schedule reliability of over 40%, 5 recorded schedule reliability of 30%-40%, while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 29.8%.
In August 2022, many of the carriers were very close to each other in terms of schedule reliability. Ten carriers were within seven percentage points of each other. 12 of the top-14 carriers recorded a M/M improvement, while all 14 recorded a year-on-year improvement. 11 of the carriers recorded double-digit improvements, and 3 recorded improvements of over 20 percentage points.
Source: Sea-Intelligence
General airfreight spot rates fell -9% year-on-year in September, below the 2021 level for the first time this year, as growing global cargo capacity continues to outpace air cargo volumes, CLIVE Data Services reported.
Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta said there are “no indications” demand will increase again. He noted some air cargo business will likely shift back to ocean as congestion eases in the ocean freight market.
General airfreight spot rates fell -9% year-on-year in September, below the 2021 level for the first time this year, as growing global cargo capacity continues to outpace air cargo volumes, CLIVE Data Services reported.
Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta said there are “no indications” demand will increase again. He noted some air cargo business will likely shift back to ocean as congestion eases in the ocean freight market.
In September, ocean spot rates from East Asia to Europe fell -49% from January levels, while air freight spot rates were -19% lower (see Figure 2). CLIVE pointed out the market will be strongly influenced by returning air cargo capacity.
“What we see is a very ‘jumpy’ air cargo market which responds very quickly to global events, whether this is the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation, the pressure on Sterling, or the stronger U.S. dollar,” said van de Wouw.
“We see a flat air cargo market in terms of demand, but the fall in general airfreight rates and load factor are likely to be exacerbated by the continuing return of capacity, even as we head towards a winter season when, traditionally, we would expect to see cargo space in the prime Europe and North America markets cut back. Shippers who have held their nerve and not shipped their peak season goods early by air are likely to find themselves in a stronger buying position,” he added.
Source: Air Cargo News
Global merchandise trade is set to slow next year, facing headwinds ranging from Russia’s war in Ukraine, high energy costs in Europe and the tightening of U.S. monetary policy leading to higher manufacturing costs and squeezing households, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.
The WTO said it expects trade growth to only increase 1% in 2023, down sharply from the previous forecast of 3.4%. It also raised its projection for growth in merchandise trade to 3.5% in 2022, slightly better than the 3% forecast in April.
“We see a flat air cargo market in terms of demand, but the fall in general airfreight rates and load factor are likely to be exacerbated by the continuing return of capacity, even as we head towards a winter season when, traditionally, we would expect to see cargo space in the prime Europe and North America markets cut back. Shippers who have held their nerve and not shipped their peak season goods early by air are likely to find themselves in a stronger buying position,” he added.
Source: Air Cargo News
The Port of Houston is considering a fee on long-dwelling containers to clear the backlog of imports congesting marine terminals. “Marine terminals have become the cheapest storage solution, and this cannot be encouraged any longer,” Port Houston Executive Director Roger Guenther said in a statement, adding that the fee was necessary to increase throughput at Houston’s terminals, which have been affected by ongoing diversions of freight from U.S. West Coast ports.
Yard utilization at Houston’s Bayport terminal, where its Asian services primarily call, has jumped from 50% at the end of March to 87% as of mid-August, according to Port Houston terminal operating statistics. While overall container volumes were up 17% year-to-date through August, Asian imports into Houston are up 37%, according to data from PIERS. Meanwhile, the port is still dealing with a high number of ships at anchor waiting for space to open at the yard to discharge imports.
The long-dwell fee would be in addition to the regular demurrage charges the port imposes for imports that dwell past their free time at Houston’s two marine terminals. Port Houston has not yet provided details about the amount of the fee, how it would be assessed, or when a decision on its implementation would be made.
Source: Journal of Commerce
